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February 5th - During Asian trading hours, US Treasury yields fell slightly across the board, driven by expectations surrounding Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh. In a report, Commerzbank analyst Erik Liem noted that Trumps nomination of Warsh strengthened market expectations that the Fed may not rely as heavily on balance sheet measures in the future. Meanwhile, the Treasurys decision to maintain stable auction sizes was in line with market expectations, although officials stated they are still assessing the possibility of increasing the size of future auctions of notes, bonds, and floating-rate bonds.Germanys manufacturing orders, adjusted for working days, rose 13% year-on-year in December, compared with 10.50% in the previous month.Germanys seasonally adjusted manufacturing orders rose 7.8% month-on-month in December, compared with an expected decline of 2.2% and a previous reading of 5.60%.February 5th - With Spain and France holding their respective bond auctions, the supply of Eurozone government bonds is expected to remain high ahead of the European Central Banks policy meeting. Spain plans to issue €5.25 billion to €6.75 billion in nominal and inflation-linked bonds, maturing between 2029 and 2035. France will auction €11.5 billion to €13.5 billion in nominal and green bonds, maturing between 2035 and 2049. Demand for Eurozone government bonds has remained strong this year, particularly in syndicated issuances. Meanwhile, Citigroup analysts Arnaud Mares and Giada Giani noted in a report that "given recent data confirming the ECB is currently in an ideal state, there is clearly no reason to expect it to change its monetary policy or communication stance in the short term."The Hang Seng Tech Index turned positive, with stocks related to new consumption, new energy vehicles, home appliances, and innovative drugs leading the gains.

Stock Markets Break 50 Day EMA

Alice Wang

Jul 21, 2022 15:45

微信截图_20220721151813.png

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

On Wednesday during trade, the S&P 500 raised its head over the 50 Day EMA, which is obviously a little success. Since there was a lot of noise between this level and the 4000 level, I believe it makes some sense that there was some hesitancy. However, I believe we have a good chance of reaching close to the 4100 level if we can break over the 4000 mark.


Looking at this chart, it would be very negative indeed if we were to reverse course and drop below the 3900 level, indicating that possibly the breakthrough was a false one. However, if we do rally, I believe we will continue to "climb the wall of anxiety" in an upward direction. Position sizing will be essential since, in any case, I believe the only thing you can probably bet on is a lot of loud behavior. It will be fascinating to see how this develops over time given that this is a violent short-covering rally.


Given the abundance of bad news now available, any collapse will likely gain a lot of momentum.


However, markets cannot continue to decline indefinitely, so this relief rally does have some logic. I believe we are in a position where we must see this through the lens of the longer-term probabilities, which continue to lead to reduced pricing over the long run. Whether or not it is a sustainable rally is an entirely separate thing. There may also be some short covering since the Federal Reserve will meet the following week.

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