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On April 6th, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) avoided fueling market expectations of a possible interest rate hike this month by maintaining a highly nuanced signal in its two quarterly regional economic reports. In a separate press release summarizing the views of its branch governors, the BOJ stated that looking ahead, amid increased uncertainty, there are concerns about rising prices, particularly energy prices, and their negative impact on corporate profits and private consumption. This commentary suggests that the BOJ is reluctant to commit to a rate hike with three weeks remaining before its next interest rate decision on April 28th. Based on overnight swap market pricing, as of Monday, traders considered the probability of a rate hike this month to be approximately 66%, as the Iran war could pose a greater upside risk to Japans already persistently high inflation. The BOJ also stated that many reports indicated businesses continue to pass on rising costs such as labor and logistics to selling prices. Meanwhile, businesses continue to combat consumer inflation fatigue by limiting price increases and strengthening their lineup of low-priced products.Saudi Aramco set its official selling price for Arab Light crude oil to the United States in May at a premium of $14.60 per barrel over Argus Sour crude.Indonesian Economy Minister: Indonesia will raise aviation fuel surcharges.Bank of Japan Nagoya branch governor: Some businesses in the region are worried that volatility in the foreign exchange market and uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict will harm the economy by worsening household and business confidence.April 6 (Reuters) - A senior Iranian official said Iran will not accept deadlines or pressure to force a decision. Iran will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a "temporary ceasefire." Iran believes the United States is not yet ready to achieve a permanent ceasefire.

Silver Price Prediction - Silver Markets Remain Volatile

Alina Haynes

Jun 29, 2022 12:16

截屏2022-06-07 下午5.18.01.png 

 

During Tuesday's trading session, silver markets were quite active, as we continue to trade over the $21 barrier. The $21 level has been a pretty significant region, but the overall picture remains bearish. It is difficult not to notice the large "H pattern" on this chart, thus it is probable that we will attempt to reach the $20 level given sufficient time.

 

The $22 level above continues to provide resistance and will likely be significant owing to the 50 Day EMA approaching it once again. Ultimately, I believe this is a market that will always have a large number of sellers at rallies, mostly owing to the fact that US interest rates will continue to rise, so working against the value of silver. Additionally, pay particular attention to the US Dollar Index, as it has a negative association with this market.

 

I would not consider this market a buying opportunity until the silver market breaks over $22.50, because it has been so bearish for so long. I do feel that we will ultimately test the $20 level in the future, and a breach below that level would create significant selling pressure. Long-term, silver's price might go as low as $12 if it falls below the $20 threshold. Keep in mind that silver is also an industrial metal, which is not helping it as a worldwide recession is imminent.