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According to Iran Petroleum News Network (SNN): Iran has activated its air defense system in the center of Tehran.Futures June 19th news, silver prices have accelerated since the beginning of June, the macro is due to the positive signal released by the high-level call between China and the United States, which has led to a rebound in risk appetite, resulting in a weak dollar and a generally warm commodity market atmosphere. In addition, the deterioration of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has also boosted silver prices to a certain extent. It is worth noting that the recent performance of gold prices is relatively sluggish, which has accelerated the downward trend of the gold-silver price ratio. In the short term, although the geopolitical situation has boosted inflation expectations, it is contrary to the Feds policy goal of controlling inflation. Once the Fed releases a strong hawkish signal because of fear of inflation expectations being de-anchored, such as reducing the number of interest rate cuts within the year or compressing the entire interest rate cut cycle, the rise in inflation expectations may be unsustainable. For silver, considering that the trend of deglobalization and weakening of the US dollars credit is still there, the price performance of gold is generally stronger than that of silver, so it should be a high probability event to push the gold-silver price center upward.On June 19, CICC Research reported that the Fed kept its June meeting on hold, in line with market expectations. Officials believe that policy uncertainty has decreased, but they still lowered their growth forecasts and raised their inflation path judgment. The dot plot retains the judgment of two interest rate cuts this year, but the details have become marginally "hawkish", showing the cautious view within the Fed. Powell remains cautious about inflation risks and said that no one has strong confidence in the interest rate path he wrote. We believe that the Fed has no intention of rushing to cut interest rates, and policymakers will not act rashly in the face of inflation if the economy allows waiting. We maintain our previous view that the Feds next interest rate cut may be in the fourth quarter.On June 19, according to the Israeli Air Force, in the early morning of the 19th local time, due to possible drone attacks, air defense alarms were sounded in many places in northern Israel and the Jordan Valley. Subsequently, the Israeli Air Force intercepted two drones launched from Iran. According to Iranian news, on the 19th local time, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned relevant personnel to evacuate immediately from a hotel in Tel Aviv, Israel. It is said that since the outbreak of this round of Israeli-Iranian conflict, Israels Channel 12 has been broadcasting in the hotel.June 19th news, early this morning, OpenAI released a 40-minute in-depth interview with its co-founder and CEO Sam Altman. This interview is very technical. Altman talked about the core product GPT-5 that everyone is very concerned about. It is likely to be released this summer, but the product time will be extended due to naming, security testing, function iteration and other reasons. It also talked about the high-performance o3 model and the intelligent agent Deep Research, and the importance of these products to the realization of AGI. In addition, Altman also mentioned OpenAIs other innovative products, including Sora, DALL-E 3, ChatGPT Junior and the $500 billion investment project "Stargate". Basically all of OpenAIs important products, current plans and future developments appeared in this interview.

S&P500 Forecast: Is 4300 the Next Stop on the Market’s Upward Climb ?

Steven Zhao

Feb 14, 2023 17:01



We said in a blog article ten days ago that the S&P500's (SPX) anticipated decline was probably over.


This was done on the assumption that the market will rise to the $4300–4500 range, which has been our major anticipation for months. We have used the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) in our study to influence our market prognosis, which we will go into more detail about in this post.


Yesterday, the S&P 500 touched the optimal third wave level: $4195 vs. 4199,... It should be on a modest fourth wave currently, hopefully reaching $4100+/-10, before a fifth wave aims for $4260+/-20. The index will then likely drop for many weeks before making a rebound to the optimal price of $4395+/-25. ”


Even though it fell short of our expectations, we were right since the index bottomed on Friday, February 10, at $4060, which is only 0.7% below the goal range we established ten days earlier.


The index is now in a rallying phase. In light of this, the green W-4 we predicted has probably reached its bottom, and the green W-5 to preferably $4260+/-10, maybe as high as $4295+/-10, should be under way. Look at Figure 1 below.

The $4300 is the main concern

According to the EWP, an impulse's third and fifth waves often reach the Fibonacci extensions of 161.8% and 200.00% of the length of the first wave, measured from the low of the second wave, respectively.


We concentrate on the green W-5 and the red W-iii in this instance. Red 161.80% extension is at $4295 and green 200% extension is at $4258. Therefore, we should anticipate W-5 of W-iii to target $4260-4295 as long as Friday, February 10, low at $4060 holds.

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