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On March 21st, HSBC stated that the Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate at 3.50%-3.75% at its March meeting, hinting at a "wait-and-see" approach. Persistent inflation and rising geopolitical risks have created uncertainty for the Fed. We maintain our previous view that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in 2026 and 2027. Inflation risks have increased, particularly due to soaring energy prices, while labor market risks have slightly decreased. Energy price volatility and geopolitical risks should continue to support safe-haven demand and a stronger dollar.Iraq says Iranian natural gas supplies have resumed, with a daily supply of 5 million cubic meters.On March 21, Brazilian President Lula da Silva stated during a visit to an oil refinery in Minas Gerais state on March 20 that the escalating conflict in the Middle East necessitates that Petrobras and the government "establish strategic oil reserves" to cope with any potential consequences of the conflict. He warned that if the war continues, and if the United States were to destroy the Strait of Hormuz, the oil crisis "will only worsen." Previously, on March 12, the Brazilian government announced the exemption of import and sales taxes on diesel fuel, while imposing a 12% export tax on crude oil to mitigate the spillover risks from the Middle East situation.On March 21, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment held a symposium on supporting the green and low-carbon development of private enterprises. Minister Huang Runqiu emphasized the need to further increase support, optimize institutional supply and policy environment, and continuously improve the green development level of private enterprises. He stressed the importance of deepening market mechanism construction, optimizing the allocation of resource and environmental factors, fully leveraging the carbon pricing function, and continuously deepening the reform of emissions trading to provide a more fair, transparent, and predictable market environment for the green transformation of private enterprises. He also emphasized strengthening fiscal and tax policy guidance, innovating the use of fiscal funds, implementing and improving green tax policies, optimizing green pricing mechanisms, and promoting the reduction of transformation costs for private enterprises. Furthermore, he called for vigorously developing green finance, improving the collaborative promotion mechanism for green and low-carbon projects, innovating investment and financing models, improving green finance standards, and guiding more financial resources to precisely support the green and low-carbon development of private enterprises. He stressed the need to standardize corporate environmental information disclosure and credit evaluation, promote the interconnection of environmental information, and provide more comprehensive credit enhancement services for private enterprises. Finally, he emphasized strengthening the empowerment of technological innovation, encouraging participation in national science and technology programs, promoting the establishment of departmental special funds, actively supporting the application and promotion of new technologies, and continuously stimulating the endogenous driving force for the green transformation of private enterprises.An Iranian military spokesman said the United States and Israel are targeting civilian and passenger ships in the Gulf region and warned of retaliatory action.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Give Up Yet Again

Skylar Shaw

May 19, 2022 10:47

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Futures on the S&P 500 have rolled over just below the 4100 level, a place that I have been discussing for many days. This is a previously supported location, and "market memory" enters the picture to provide resistance. That resistance should continue all the way to 4150, but as you can see, we've plummeted before even trying a breakthrough. By plunging the way we have, it seems that there are still many worries in the stock market. It is also worth mentioning that Target indicated a slowdown during its results call. Many individuals are concerned about the US consumer, and as a result, there has been a lot of hostility.


If we turn around a break above the 4150 level, there is still a lot of resistance that stretches all the way to the 4300 zone, so I'm not looking to purchase this anytime soon. In fact, I believe we will test the lows once again, which are closer to the 3850 level. If we break down below that level, the fall will very certainly accelerate. I think that the prospect of the Federal Reserve failing to intervene is now dawning on some of Wall Street's thick heads, and this is reflected in the price.


Regardless, I have no intention of attempting to purchase this market any time soon since, quite honestly, it is a nightmare right now. The S&P 500 remains a "sell the rallies" position until the Federal Reserve changes its tune or economic data improves.

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