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On August 15th, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated in a media interview on August 14th that while mediators Qatar and Pakistan are exchanging information and maintaining contact with Iran, this does not signify ongoing negotiations. Iran has not yet decided whether to resume negotiations with the United States. Araqchi also stated that negotiations between Iran and Oman are ongoing and relate to determining the navigation routes through the Strait of Hormuz for ship passage; this is a completely different issue from the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Araqchi emphasized that Iran will only restore passage through the Strait of Hormuz if the United States complies with certain conditions.August 15th - According to real-time data from Lighthouse Pro, as of 12:22 PM on August 15th, the film "Welcome to Dragon Restaurant" has surpassed 600 million yuan at the box office.August 15th - According to the New York Times, supply problems for the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier began shortly after the first day of the war – when Iranian missiles and attack drones struck a US Navy base in Bahrain. This attack was Iranian retaliation for the US-Israel joint attack on Tehran, and much of the bases infrastructure was destroyed. Along with the smoke, a major logistics hub upon which the Navy relied was also destroyed. The Navy urgently needed backup plans to continue supplying sailors operating around the clock to maintain air support and, later, to maintain the blockade of Iranian ports. The loss of the Bahrain logistics hub led to numerous problem reports on the carrier supporting the war effort against Iran, and Democratic senators expressed concern about the 5,000 sailors on the Lincoln and its nearly nine-month deployment.August 15th - According to Politico, President Trumps demands on the Navy reached their peak this month, threatening to further weaken an already heavily financially and logistically burdened branch of the military. Trumps deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier has set a record, with the ship having been at sea for nine consecutive months, and sailors families warning that the crew is nearing its limit. A government report indicates that Trumps proposed "golden fleet" of new battleships will cost billions of dollars more than expected. Meanwhile, experts have criticized the presidents order to reinstate outdated technology, a move that could completely disrupt ship production. These problems are now compounding, significantly increasing the pressure on the U.S. Navy. The Navy itself is chronically plagued by delays, cost overruns, and a shrinking fleet, all of which could jeopardize its ability to defend the nation. One U.S. official said, "Our warships are exhausted in the Middle East and the Caribbean, with no end in sight. The Navy is really on the line right now."Iranian Foreign Minister: Iran has not yet decided to resume negotiations with the United States.

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Price Outlook for The Week Ahead

Alice Wang

Aug 08, 2022 15:10

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All speculation that the Fed will lower the rate of interest rate increases has now been put on hold as the central bank continues to aim for persistently high inflation in the wake of Friday's labor report. The most recent NFP data, which shows the US employment market in excellent condition, refutes recent rumors that the Fed may change course on interest rates in response to a slowing economy.


The Fed will have greater freedom to raise rates higher and quicker thanks to today's publication, but it is just one piece of information. Although the Fed uses semantics to claim that everything is OK, a study at the US Treasury market reveals that the UST2s/10s curve is inverting even further, presently at a level of roughly -40bps. Data releases are still crucial, as usual, and Fed talk also has to be carefully monitored.


Next week, all eyes will be on the inflation data released on Wednesday, with another little increase in core inflation predicted. However, if this data reveals dropping inflation, it would encourage ideas of a "soft landing" in the US, giving the Federal Reserve its ideal situation.


The Nasdaq 100's latest rise tried and failed to breach trend resistance off the high from late December 2021. The tech-heavy indexes have been on the rise recently, rising more than 20% from their low on June 16. Trading may soon go back to the "sell the rise" habit that has worked them so well since the end of 2021 as the current "buy the decline" mentality during the previous six weeks seems to be done for the time being.

AUGUST 5, 2022: NASDAQ 100 DAILY PRICE CHART

In addition, the S&P 500 rise has been stopped after reaching a new two-month high this week. While the S&P 500 will continue to be under pressure, the downside for the indices will probably be more constrained than the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The indexes have made a series of higher lows over the last 6 to 8 weeks.

August 5, 2022 in the S&P 500 Daily Price Chart

According to statistics from retail traders, 1.66 traders for every 1 short trader shows a net long position of 37.63 percent. While the number of traders who are net-long is up 3.09 percent from yesterday and down 0.15 percent from the previous week, the number of traders who are net-short is up 0.77 percent from yesterday and up 17.15 percent.


We often adopt a contrarian stance to the general consensus, and the fact that traders are net-short means that US 500 prices may climb in the future.


Positioning is more net-short from last week than it was yesterday. We have a further mixed US 500 trade bias based on the current mood and previous adjustments

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