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June 10th - U.S. core CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month in May, below market expectations of 0.3%, causing U.S. Treasuries to strengthen slightly as bond traders maintained their bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike before the end of the year. The data was seen as easing some pressure on the Fed ahead of Kevin Warshs first meeting as Fed chair next week. Following the CPI release, most U.S. Treasury yields fell less than one basis point. The two-year Treasury yield, more sensitive to short-term monetary policy changes, was at 4.11%, down from around 4.13% earlier in the session. Dan Carter, senior portfolio manager at Fort Washington Investment Advisors, said, "This gives the Fed a little breathing room."June 10 - Goldman Sachs Asset Management strategist Tim Urbanowicz stated that while the recent surge in overall and core inflation is significant and poses headwinds to the economy and cyclical sectors, the driving force from the AI investment cycle, the potential benefits of the Beauty Act, and the lagged effects of the Federal Reserves rate cuts continue to provide strong support.June 10th - US May CPI data showed inflation surging to a three-year high, but a moderate rise in core prices eased Wall Streets concerns about interest rate hikes. Todays CPI data and tomorrows PPI index are expected to influence the Federal Reserves policy stance, which will be announced at the Fed meeting chaired by Warsh for the first time in a week. According to CME FedWatch, prior to the release of the CPI inflation data, the market had already priced in a 70% probability of a Fed rate hike by the end of 2026. However, the market believes that a rate hike at next weeks meeting is highly unlikely, with only a 13% probability of a rate hike at the July meeting. The short-term focus is on whether the Fed will clearly shift from an easing stance to a neutral or tightening stance at the upcoming meeting. This weeks CPI and PPI inflation data, as well as the progress of US-Iran negotiations, may influence the balance between neutral and tightening.Fed mouthpiece Nick Timiraos: May core CPI rose 0.21% month-over-month, very close to expectations, pushing the 12-month core CPI annual rate to 2.9%.German Chancellor Merz: (Regarding nuclear deterrence) We will strengthen European defense and the defense industry.

Price Prediction for Silver - Silver prices are scarcely altered prior to the important inflation measurement

Alina Haynes

May 11, 2022 10:25

As the currency weakened and rates plummeted, silver prices remained constant. Against other major currencies, the U.S. dollar declined somewhat. In the wake of the FOMC meeting, benchmark rates decreased because the Fed was less aggressive than the market had anticipated. After yesterday's 23-basis-point increase, the ten-year yield dropped below 3 percent.

 

Gold prices rose as the currency weakened. Given that tomorrow's US inflation report could affect the Fed's monetary policy, investors bought gold. Oil prices remain under pressure due to China's restrictions and a rising dollar, which has made oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.

 

As a result of Eastern European requests for exemptions and concessions, the oil embargo against Russia has been delayed.

 

The NFIB Small Business Economic Trends index remained unchanged from the prior month at 93.2. This indicator of small company confidence in the United States was below the 48-year average of 98.

 

This information indicates that small enterprises are struggling to combat rising inflationary pressures. Small enterprises face increased labor expenses and a labor scarcity, which exacerbates their economic difficulties.

 

Wednesday's announcement of inflation data will certainly influence the Fed's policy decision at the next meeting.

Technical Evaluation

The price of silver remains below $22. A sustained breach below the $22 level will indicate further fall and favor bearish traders in the AG/USD market. Additional selling might cause silver to hit the December bottom around $21.40.

 

The metal is likely to experience further declines near the $21 level and approach the $20 psychological threshold.

 

Near the December 15th low of 21.49 is support. Near the 10-day moving average near the 10-day moving average of 22.57, there is observed resistance. The short-term momentum is negative as the fast stochastic signaled a sell crossover.

 

The medium-term momentum has become negative as the histogram and MACD both print in a negative direction (moving average convergence divergence). The MACD histogram is moving in a negative direction, reflecting the downward trend in price movement.

 

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