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On January 30th, analysts stated that gold and silver prices fell due to news that Kevin Warsh would be nominated by Trump as the next Federal Reserve Chairman. An analyst from a Malaysian bank stated in a foreign exchange research and strategy report, "Warsh has long been a critic of extremely loose monetary policy and has served as a Federal Reserve governor; therefore, the market may be pricing in the potential impact of his appointment on the future policy path."January 30th - According to Zhejiang Provincial Airport Group, during the Spring Festival travel rush, airports across the province are expected to handle 10.61 million passengers, averaging 265,000 passengers per day, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, which is 2.2 percentage points higher than the national average and is expected to set a new historical record.The bid-to-cover ratio for Japans 2-year government bond auction was 3.88, higher than the 3.26 for the previous issuance in December.Market Warnings: Risks in the Gold Market 1. Carson Group: Gold prices have stretched to near-extreme levels, and some moderate profit-taking is not surprising. 2. Spartan Securities: A pullback in gold and silver futures may indicate that prices have reached recent highs, making this reversal significant. 3. Vantage Point: Recent gold price movements have become rapid, emotional, and non-linear, a warning sign that the trend is overextended at a tactical level. 4. Market analyst Jeremy Boulton: Gold is what really needs to be watched closely; its price surges in an extremely volatile manner, significantly increasing the risk of a reversal. The current gold price rally is extremely distorted. Any extreme movement warrants caution. 5. Galaxy Overseas: Gold and other precious metals appear to be in a self-reinforcing feedback loop, with their price movements themselves becoming news drivers of price changes. This could affect investors perception of fiat currency-related risks and lead to a widening of the bond risk premium at the long end of the yield curve. Investment banks remain bullish on gold: 1. Goldman Sachs: The sharp two-way fluctuations in silver prices may persist, while emphasizing that the year-end gold price target of $5400 still faces significant upside risks. 2. RBC Capital Markets: Golds upward momentum is far from peaking, with prices potentially reaching $7100/oz by year-end (previously predicted to reach around $5200 in the fourth quarter). 3. Deutsche Bank: Gold reaching $6000 is achievable given the weakening dollar this year. Based on the outperformance of the past two years, gold prices could even reach $6900. 4. OCBC Bank: Raised its year-end 2026 gold price target from $4800 to $5600. The rise in gold prices reflects recent developments and their continued exceeding expectations, rather than a reassessment of the underlying logic. 5. Bank of America: While history doesnt always predict the future, the average gold price increase in the past four bull markets was approximately 300% over 43 months, suggesting gold will reach $6,000 per ounce by the spring of 2026. 6. UBS: Maintains a bullish stance on gold and has raised its price forecasts for March, June, and September of this year to $6,200 (previously $5,000), expecting a modest pullback to $5,900 by the end of 2026. 7. Bank of Montreal: Assuming central banks purchase a total of 8 million ounces of gold per quarter, while ETFs see inflows of approximately 4-5 million ounces per quarter, and with continued weakening of real yields and the US dollar, this will push gold to $6,350 in Q4 of this year and $8,650 in Q4 of next year.On January 30th, Khoon Goh, Head of Asia Research at ANZ Bank, stated, "I suspect that if Kevin Warshs appointment is true, he will be seen as someone who can maintain a certain degree of independence, rather than someone who might succumb to Trumps wishes. Whats more noteworthy is how the market will react when Trump finally announces his nominee. However, another point is that the US dollar experienced significant volatility this week, so I dont think we should pay too much attention to these forex fluctuations, as they may simply be position-closing. Investors may simply be reducing their risk exposure before the announcement. Furthermore, especially at this point in time, if we think from the perspective of investors or market participants: what happened during the first weekend of January? The Venezuelan crisis; what happened during the second weekend? The Greenland crisis; and now the situation in Iran is also uncertain. Therefore, any rational market participant would not want to go through the weekend with large positions, so some operations may simply be reducing positions."

International gold prices break away from a week and a half high, investors wait for heavy data to be released

Oct 26, 2021 10:58

On Tuesday (October 5), international gold prices fell and left the high of $1,770.44 per ounce set overnight since September 23, as the U.S. dollar benefited from sluggish risk sentiment. Prior to the release of employment data in the United States this Friday, gold prices are expected to fluctuate, as the data may influence the Fed's debt purchase reduction plan.

At GMT+8 16:14, spot gold fell 0.60% to US$1759.06 per ounce; the main COMEX gold contract fell 0.46% to US$1759.4 per ounce; the US dollar index rose by 0.12% to 93.920.


The rise in the dollar index has made gold more expensive for buyers who hold other currencies. But the stock market slid as investors worried that soaring energy prices would inhibit economic growth. In addition, the US debt ceiling deadlock has also limited the downside of gold prices.

OANDA Asia Pacific senior market analyst Jeffrey Halley said that the downturn in the stock market prompted Asian investors to buy US dollars, putting pressure on gold. He added that before the US employment report is released, the price of gold will be in the range of $1750-1785.00.

U.S. President Biden said on Monday (October 4) that unless Republicans and Democrats work together to vote to increase the debt ceiling in the next two weeks, the federal government may exceed the $28.4 trillion debt ceiling and default on an unprecedented level. .

Halley said: "Gold may find support when it drops to $1750.00 this week because of inflation and US fiscal concerns." Halley added that although these uncertainties will support gold to a certain extent, U.S. monetary policy Direction will be the ultimate key factor.

It is expected that the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States in September will show continued improvement in the labor market, which may cause the Fed to begin to reduce stimulus measures before the end of the year. Reduced stimulus measures and increased interest rates have increased bond yields, putting pressure on gold because the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold bars will increase.

However, some market participants said that the US's reduction of debt purchase issues may have limited impact on gold because investors have already digested this expectation. Now the main force determining the direction of gold prices has turned to the magnitude and pace of the Fed's rate hike.

St. Louis Fed President Brad said on Monday that for the first time in years, American companies have encountered no problems in raising prices to customers. While the market is worried that expectations of high inflation have become entrenched, he warned that inflation may remain high for some time to come.

Brad is one of the strongest supporters in the Federal Reserve that believe that positive measures should be taken to curb higher-than-expected inflation. He believes that two interest rate hikes are needed in 2022. At present, interest rates are still at a level close to zero, which has been at this level since the outbreak of the new crown pandemic in early 2020.

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