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January 30th - A depreciating dollar could cause trouble for Trump and the Federal Reserve. A significant depreciation of the dollar could put the US at risk of effectively "importing" inflation. Joe Kalish, chief macro strategist at Ned Davis Research, wrote, "Trumps disregard for the dollar could backfire, undermining his economic plans and causing Republicans to lose their majority in the House." On Wednesday, Powell stated that the Fed would not discuss the dollar, adding that "the Treasury is the one that regulates the currency." Ironically, however, if inflation worsens, it might be the Feds actions that help defend the dollar. Further inflation caused by a continued dollar depreciation could prevent the Fed from lowering interest rates as Trump desires, and could even lead to rate hikes.On January 30th, the Japanese government released data on the 29th showing that, driven by soaring rice prices in the domestic market, Japans private rice imports in 2025 are projected to increase more than 90 times compared to the previous year. Data from the Ministry of Finance shows that private rice imports in Japan last year reached approximately 96,800 tons, the highest since comparable data became available in 2000, roughly 95 times the import volume in 2024. The largest source of rice imports was the United States, accounting for nearly 80%. By month, July saw the highest import volume, exceeding 26,000 tons. Over the past year, Japanese rice prices have surged, repeatedly breaking records. Data from Japanese supermarket rice price monitoring shows that in the week ending January 18th, the average price of a 5kg bag of rice was 4,283 yen (approximately 194 yuan), exceeding the previous weeks average price and remaining above 4,000 yen (181 yuan) for 20 consecutive weeks.January 30th - An explosion occurred at the Tupraş Izmit oil refinery in Kocaeli Province, northwestern Turkey, on the evening of January 29th local time. The explosion took place in a gasoline storage tank area of the refinery, subsequently triggering a large fire. Thick smoke billowed from the scene, flames were visible several kilometers away, and strong tremors were felt, causing panic among local residents. Following the incident, the refinery immediately activated its emergency response plan. For safety reasons, a large number of refinery employees were evacuated. Currently, local fire and safety rescue teams are working to extinguish the fire, and the situation remains under control.January 30th - According to sources in Israel, as US President Trump "is about to make a decision on action against Iran," Israeli security agencies have recently significantly enhanced their defensive and offensive preparedness, closely monitoring regional developments and focusing on how to provide timely warnings to the public in the event of an Iranian attack. On the same day, senior IDF officials and security officials held their weekly situation assessment meeting, with the Iranian issue being a key focus of discussion. Israeli security officials stated that, given President Trumps recent statements and the increased US military presence in the Middle East, the US appears unwilling to allow the status quo regarding Iran to continue. Israel believes Trump may seek larger-scale action, and the Pentagon has developed related plans, with US Central Command continuing to increase troop deployments to the Middle East. An Israeli official stated that the US and Israeli militaries are maintaining coordination.According to Punchbowl, Republican senators plan a potential vote tonight to finalize the appropriations package and the Department of Homeland Securitys temporary funding bill—a sign that an agreement is imminent. While far from certain, this is undoubtedly a positive sign. It requires the cooperation of all 100 senators. An amendment vote will likely be necessary.

How will the first female Treasury secretary in American history affect the market?

Eden

Oct 25, 2021 14:06

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Yellen is only 1.52 meters tall, but no one dares to look down upon her. Yellen, 74, has successively become the first Fed chairman in American history and the first female Treasury secretary of the United States.


In 1946, Yellen was born in Brooklyn, New York, into a Jewish family with a strong knowledge atmosphere. Father Julius was a Polish immigrant and became a family doctor after coming to the United States. Mother Anna is an elementary school teacher.


Yellen has had extraordinary intelligence and learning ability since he was a child. When he was studying at Fort Hamilton High School, he was already a man of outstanding grades.


She received a bachelor's degree in economics from Brown University and a doctorate in economics from Yale University in 1967, and then served as an assistant professor at Yale University from 1971 to 1976. After working as a teaching assistant for a few years, Yellen was accepted by Yale alumnus and head of the International Finance Department of the Federal Reserve Ted. Truman liked it and invited him to join the Fed to study international currency reform. Yellen was only 31 years old at that time.


Dovish style

Since February 2014, Yellen has served as chairman of the Federal Reserve. During Yellen's tenure, he adopted a gradual increase in interest rates to maintain the stability of employment and prices in the US market. There was only one interest rate hike from 2015 to 2016, which to a certain extent reflects Yellen's dovish decision-making style.


During Yellen’s tenure, there were more than 200,000 jobs in the United States each month, the unemployment rate fell from 6.6% to 4.3%, and interest rates in the United States increased by 1 percentage point from March 2014. At the same time, the core inflation rate has been far below the Fed’s 2% target. As of April, the core inflation rate in the United States was 1.5%.


Yellen has always been as candid and transparent as possible when speaking publicly, so that investors can see their next move at a glance. And such an open and transparent environment is a great benefit to ordinary investors in the US stock and bond markets. Since Yellen took office in 2014, the "panic index" of the U.S. stock market has dropped to the lowest level in history, and the volatility of the market's ups and downs has been significantly reduced.


Over the past four years, Yellen has conducted full and effective communication with the market, and the process of normalizing monetary policy such as withdrawing from QE, gradually raising interest rates, and shrinking the balance sheet has been orderly. Facts have proved that in terms of the overall performance of the US economy after the financial crisis, Yellen's work results are widely recognized. The "dovish" view she insists on is considered a "friendly" attitude towards Wall Street and the US financial market.


Yellen is good for the stock market and employment

Yellen became a female finance minister, providing a boost for the stable development of the economy after the epidemic.


First, Yellen is a dovish fanatic, tends to promote employment rather than control inflation, and is good at gradual and fine-grained management of policies, and will not approve of rash interest rate hikes. Second, the new Fed chairpersons, Brainard and Yellen’s policy style Consistent; third, Yellen is conducive to the launch of a new round of fiscal stimulus plan, conducive to the stock market.


In the medium and long term, Yellen will help promote the implementation of the US fiscal stimulus policy. Fiscal policy and monetary policy coordinate and cooperate. In the future, due to the gradual recovery of demand, the price level will return to the currency phenomenon, and there will be certain inflationary pressure. However, the potential growth rate of the U.S. economy has declined, and the recovery of real profit levels may be limited, thereby dragging down the expansion of real demand and restricting the upward rate of inflation. Correspondingly, ample liquidity may seek low-valued, anti-inflation assets globally, and the allocation value of some commodities will appear.


Research institute Monita believes that Yellen advocates the use of large-scale fiscal stimulus policies, and has repeatedly stated in public that finance should play a greater role. Taking into account Yellen's influence in the Republican Party and academia, this also makes the introduction of fiscal stimulus policies much more likely. In terms of the specific structure, fiscal funds will be more inclined to employment. This is because Yellen's academic research is mainly in employment, so next year is expected to see a further decline in the unemployment rate in the United States.