• English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
April 13th - "The fuel surcharge used to be adjusted monthly, but its been adjusted three times since April," a SF Express International customer service representative stated. They explained that international oil prices have fluctuated significantly since April, leading to frequent adjustments to the fuel surcharge for international express shipping. The customer service representative calculated that, based on the 39.25% fuel surcharge rate from April 6th to 12th, a 1kg parcel shipped from Beijing to the UK would have a base shipping cost of 363 yuan and a fuel surcharge of 142 yuan, totaling 505 yuan. However, starting April 13th, the total cost will increase to 508 yuan.U.S. 10-year Treasury futures fell 10 points.Monday: ① Data: US March existing home sales (annualized); China March M2 money supply (annualized). ② Events: OPEC releases its monthly oil market report; the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank hold their spring meetings until April 17; Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda visits the US from April 13 to 18 to attend the G20 and IMF meetings. Tuesday: ① Data: US March NFIB Small Business Confidence Index; US March PPI (year-on-year); US March PPI (month-on-month); Chinas March trade balance (in USD); Chinas March trade balance. ② Events: The Federal Reserve Board hosts "Strengthening the US Economy through Rural Investment: A Working Forum"; the IEA releases its monthly oil market report; the IMF releases its World Economic Outlook report. Wednesday: ① Data: US API and EIA crude oil inventory data for the week ending April 10; final French March CPI month-on-month rate; Eurozone February industrial production month-on-month rate; Canadian February wholesale sales month-on-month rate; US April New York Fed Manufacturing Index, US March Import Price Index month-on-month rate, US April NAHB Housing Market Index. ② Events: The National Energy Administration releases total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month; Bank of England Governor Bailey participates in a panel discussion at Columbia University; 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsby participates in a panel discussion before the Semafor 2026 World Economic Conference; Fed Governor Barr delivers opening remarks at a working forum hosted by the Fed Board of Governors; Philadelphia Fed President Paulson, Richmond Fed President Barkin, Boston Fed President Collins, and Fed Governor Barr participate in a fireside chat at the Fed Board of Governors working forum; European Central Bank President Lagarde delivers a speech. Thursday: ① Data: Australias seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in March; Chinas first-quarter GDP year-on-year, Chinas March retail sales of consumer goods year-on-year, Chinas March industrial value-added year-on-year; UKs three-month GDP month-on-month in February, UKs February manufacturing output month-on-month, UKs seasonally adjusted goods trade balance in February, UKs February industrial production month-on-month; Eurozones final March CPI year-on-year rate, Eurozones final March CPI month-on-month rate; US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11, US April Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US March industrial production month-on-month, US EIA natural gas storage for the week ending April 10. ② Events: Federal Reserve Governor Bowman speaks at the Institute of International Finance Forum; the Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book on economic conditions; Bank of England Governor Bailey speaks on global economic imbalances on the sidelines of an IMF meeting; the National Bureau of Statistics releases its monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 major and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office holds a press conference on the operation of the national economy; FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams speaks; the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting is held. ③ Earnings Report: TSMC. Friday: ① Data: Eurozone February seasonally adjusted current account, Eurozone February seasonally adjusted trade balance. Saturday: ① Data: Total number of US oil rigs for the week ending April 17. ② Event: 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks.April 13th - European natural gas prices surged in early Asian trading on Monday after Trump announced the U.S. would begin a full-scale blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Dutch TTF futures jumped as much as 18% to €51.30 per megawatt-hour. The failure of peace talks could trigger sharp fluctuations in the natural gas market and lead to continued tight global supply. Although most of the gas from the Middle East typically flows to Asia, continued disruption to the waterway could intensify competition for limited global liquefied natural gas resources as Europe seeks to build up its reserves before the next winter. European natural gas prices have risen by more than 50% since the U.S. and Israel first struck Iran in late February.On April 13th, gold prices fell as much as 2% to around $4,650 an ounce, erasing all of the previous weeks gains, after President Trump ordered a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the breakdown of US-Iran peace talks. Trumps announcement came after weekend talks in Pakistan failed to reach an agreement, failing to translate the fragile ceasefire following six weeks of conflict in the Middle East into lasting peace. The surge in energy prices has increased inflation risks, making central banks more likely to postpone interest rate cuts or even raise rates. This constitutes a bearish factor for gold, which does not generate yield, as its prices typically benefit when borrowing costs are low.

How will the first female Treasury secretary in American history affect the market?

Eden

Oct 25, 2021 14:06

download.jpg


Yellen is only 1.52 meters tall, but no one dares to look down upon her. Yellen, 74, has successively become the first Fed chairman in American history and the first female Treasury secretary of the United States.


In 1946, Yellen was born in Brooklyn, New York, into a Jewish family with a strong knowledge atmosphere. Father Julius was a Polish immigrant and became a family doctor after coming to the United States. Mother Anna is an elementary school teacher.


Yellen has had extraordinary intelligence and learning ability since he was a child. When he was studying at Fort Hamilton High School, he was already a man of outstanding grades.


She received a bachelor's degree in economics from Brown University and a doctorate in economics from Yale University in 1967, and then served as an assistant professor at Yale University from 1971 to 1976. After working as a teaching assistant for a few years, Yellen was accepted by Yale alumnus and head of the International Finance Department of the Federal Reserve Ted. Truman liked it and invited him to join the Fed to study international currency reform. Yellen was only 31 years old at that time.


Dovish style

Since February 2014, Yellen has served as chairman of the Federal Reserve. During Yellen's tenure, he adopted a gradual increase in interest rates to maintain the stability of employment and prices in the US market. There was only one interest rate hike from 2015 to 2016, which to a certain extent reflects Yellen's dovish decision-making style.


During Yellen’s tenure, there were more than 200,000 jobs in the United States each month, the unemployment rate fell from 6.6% to 4.3%, and interest rates in the United States increased by 1 percentage point from March 2014. At the same time, the core inflation rate has been far below the Fed’s 2% target. As of April, the core inflation rate in the United States was 1.5%.


Yellen has always been as candid and transparent as possible when speaking publicly, so that investors can see their next move at a glance. And such an open and transparent environment is a great benefit to ordinary investors in the US stock and bond markets. Since Yellen took office in 2014, the "panic index" of the U.S. stock market has dropped to the lowest level in history, and the volatility of the market's ups and downs has been significantly reduced.


Over the past four years, Yellen has conducted full and effective communication with the market, and the process of normalizing monetary policy such as withdrawing from QE, gradually raising interest rates, and shrinking the balance sheet has been orderly. Facts have proved that in terms of the overall performance of the US economy after the financial crisis, Yellen's work results are widely recognized. The "dovish" view she insists on is considered a "friendly" attitude towards Wall Street and the US financial market.


Yellen is good for the stock market and employment

Yellen became a female finance minister, providing a boost for the stable development of the economy after the epidemic.


First, Yellen is a dovish fanatic, tends to promote employment rather than control inflation, and is good at gradual and fine-grained management of policies, and will not approve of rash interest rate hikes. Second, the new Fed chairpersons, Brainard and Yellen’s policy style Consistent; third, Yellen is conducive to the launch of a new round of fiscal stimulus plan, conducive to the stock market.


In the medium and long term, Yellen will help promote the implementation of the US fiscal stimulus policy. Fiscal policy and monetary policy coordinate and cooperate. In the future, due to the gradual recovery of demand, the price level will return to the currency phenomenon, and there will be certain inflationary pressure. However, the potential growth rate of the U.S. economy has declined, and the recovery of real profit levels may be limited, thereby dragging down the expansion of real demand and restricting the upward rate of inflation. Correspondingly, ample liquidity may seek low-valued, anti-inflation assets globally, and the allocation value of some commodities will appear.


Research institute Monita believes that Yellen advocates the use of large-scale fiscal stimulus policies, and has repeatedly stated in public that finance should play a greater role. Taking into account Yellen's influence in the Republican Party and academia, this also makes the introduction of fiscal stimulus policies much more likely. In terms of the specific structure, fiscal funds will be more inclined to employment. This is because Yellen's academic research is mainly in employment, so next year is expected to see a further decline in the unemployment rate in the United States.