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On November 21st, Bank of America Securities issued a research report stating that Link REITs (00823.HK) interim results for fiscal year 2026 ending September 30th were below expectations. The bank lowered its distribution per unit forecast for fiscal years 2026-2028 by 2% to 3%, and correspondingly reduced its target price from HK$45 to HK$43. The report stated that Link REITs biggest negative factor was the sharp decline in retail rental income in mainland China, while a 6% decrease in renewal rents in Hong Kong was within expectations. However, the widening year-on-year decline in tenant sales in the second fiscal quarter disappointed the market. The bank expects that Link REITs cost-cutting measures should help the company stabilize its distribution per unit. By mid-fiscal year 2027, the company should be able to adjust its business portfolio to better cope with e-commerce competition. The bank believes that the companys current valuation remains attractive and reiterated its buy rating.The UKs October public sector net borrowing and seasonally adjusted retail sales figures will be released in ten minutes.1. WTI crude oil futures trading volume was 797,449 lots, a decrease of 74,716 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 1,851,196 lots, an increase of 505 lots from the previous trading day. 2. Brent crude oil futures trading volume was 169,628 lots, an increase of 2,365 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 238,065 lots, an increase of 3,119 lots from the previous trading day. 3. Natural gas futures trading volume was 516,728 lots, a decrease of 57,116 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 1,496,571 lots, a decrease of 9,397 lots from the previous trading day.HSBC raised its target price for Walmart (WMT.N) from $121 to $122.On November 21st, MarketPulse analyst Christian Norman stated that the better-than-expected US non-farm payroll data for September reinforced the Federal Reserves tendency to postpone interest rate cuts. However, a core question now exists in the market: how can the Fed guarantee making the right decisions in the absence of data? Therefore, although a high-interest-rate environment should be bearish for gold, there are signs that the market is beginning to view gold as a hedge against "policy mistakes." If the Fed decides to hold rates steady in December, but subsequent data proves that not cutting rates was a mistake, it could very well shake market confidence in the dollar. In contrast, gold has become a more reliable "safe haven." While this is currently only a secondary logic, it could indeed provide some support for gold prices, as it reflects a decline in market confidence in the Feds ability to accurately control the economy (in the absence of complete information).

Gold Remains Below $1,650, and Copper Awaits Important Production Reports

Skylar Williams

Oct 17, 2022 14:34

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On Monday, gold prices inched up, but stayed below important support levels as markets anticipated future Federal Reserve rate hikes. In the meantime, copper markets awaited quarterly output figures from several of the world's largest miners, scheduled for release later this week.


The price of gold saw its worst week in two months with the release of statistics indicating that it will likely take considerably longer than anticipated for U.S. inflation to decrease. The reading heightened anticipation for additional anti-inflationary rate hikes at the Federal Reserve's November meeting.


The market has priced in a nearly 100 percent chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 75 basis points for the third consecutive month in November. The increase will place U.S. interest rates at almost 4 percent, their highest level since late 2007.


Spot gold rose 0.1% to $1,646.02 per ounce at 19:25 E.T., while gold futures rose 0.2% to $1,651.35 per ounce (23:25 GMT). In the preceding week, both assets declined by more than 3 percent.


The yellow metal remained under pressure from the dollar's strength, which last month approached a 20-year high. Additionally, Treasury yields reached their highest levels since the 2008 financial crisis.


Rising interest rates have depressed gold prices and boosted the dollar this year, as the prospective cost of holding gold has climbed in step with lending rates. The trend has also significantly weakened gold's attraction as a safe haven, notwithstanding the deteriorating global economic situation.


Copper prices rose among industrial metals on Monday, but remained near two-year lows as the global economy stalled.


Copper futures per pound gained by 0.5% to $3.4220. The price of the red metal jumped by 1% last week, supported by a falling dollar and signs of a tightening supply due to Russia-related sanctions.


In the next months, however, the metal and the majority of its industrial counterparts may encounter formidable obstacles. During Sunday's 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, President Xi Jinping signaled that China, the world's top importer of metals, had no plans to pull back its economically damaging zero-COVID policy.


This year, the policy stalled economic activity in the world's second-largest economy, significantly reducing its appetite for imports of commodities.


This week, BHP Group (NYSE:BHP) and Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) will announce production figures for the third quarter, which will shed light on the copper supply side. In light of the fact that U.S. sanctions have blocked the exports of a number of Russian producers, a potential supply constraint could result in a price increase.


Rio Tinto's production figures will be released on Tuesday, while BHP's are expected on Wednesday.