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The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that U.S. oil production will average 13.83 million barrels per day in August, up slightly from 13.82 million barrels per day in July; September production is projected to average 13.77 million barrels per day.U.S. Central Command: 82 vessels were redirected in the Strait of Hormuz, 3 were interfered with, and 2 were boarded to ensure compliance.On August 29th, US President Trump announced on social media that the United States had reached an agreement with Venezuela, gaining "majority control" over more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuelas proven oil reserves. Trump stated that the US and Venezuela collaborated, through partnerships with private companies, to acquire "majority control" of over 65 billion barrels of Venezuelas proven oil reserves, with US taxpayers bearing no cost. Trump claimed that this deal "will more than double the US oil reserves, significantly increase oil supply, and significantly reduce US gasoline prices for a long time to come." However, Trump did not disclose the specific details of the agreement, and the White House has not yet released an official statement.On August 29th, NBC News, citing two sources familiar with the matter, reported that US Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth has been discussing the possibility of running for president in 2028 with close associates in recent months. Hegseth and his wife believe he shares some similarities with Trump, including a tough, confrontational style and conservative stances on social issues, which could garner support from the MAGA base. This month, Hegseth also traveled to Iowa to campaign for Republican lawmakers. Iowa has long been a key outpost in US presidential elections, further fueling speculation that he is preparing to run. If he does run, Hegseth could compete with Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Rubio, and others. However, a Pentagon spokesperson denied the claims, stating that "Secretary Hegseth will not run for president," and that his primary focus remains leading the Department of Defense. The report points out that the ongoing war with Iran could be a major political burden for Hegseth, with 18 US military personnel already killed and the average US gasoline price rising from less than $3 per gallon to slightly over $4.On August 29th, Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian stated that todays changes in the US Treasury yield curve released two signals. The spread between the 2-year and 10-year yields narrowed by approximately 7 basis points, and the spread between the 2-year and 30-year yields narrowed by approximately 10 basis points, showing a flattening trend. El-Erian believes this reflects a dual interpretation in the fixed-income market: in the short term, it represents a hawkish repricing following Federal Reserve Chairman Warshs firm commitment to the inflation target; in the long term, it reflects recognition of the Federal Reserves long-term credibility.

Gold Remains Above $1,800 As The Fed Mulls Inflation

Skylar Williams

Dec 14, 2022 10:48

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Gold prices hovered near a six-month high on Wednesday as markets awaited the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate hikes and inflationary pressures, following a sharp rally in the previous session.


Inflation as measured by the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) decreased further in November, indicating that price pressures in the country have peaked and are likely to decline.


Spot gold was unchanged at $1,809.90 per ounce at 19:21 EDT, and gold futures were also unchanged at $1,820.70 per ounce (00:21 GMT). Tuesday witnessed an increase of 1.6% for both assets.


As a result of tighter monetary conditions, falling fuel prices, and sluggish economic growth, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by more than anticipated in November, to 7.1%. In addition, it was the lowest reading for inflation in a year.


The focus is currently on the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's final meeting of the year, which is scheduled for later in the day. It is anticipated that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 50 basis points (bps).


However, the markets will closely watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell's post-meeting address to determine whether the central bank believes inflation has cooled sufficiently to begin further tapering its rate-hiking pace.


Given that the Fed has maintained a generally hawkish stance against inflation this year, Fed-related expectations also capped Tuesday's risk-driven market rally.


This year, the Fed's series of sharp interest rate hikes devastated metal markets, as the central bank prioritized fighting inflationary pressures. Indications of slower rate hikes are likely to benefit markets in the short term.


Other precious metals also recorded significant gains on Tuesday. Futures for platinum increased by 3.3%, while futures for silver increased by 2.2%.


Copper prices fell among industrial metals on Wednesday due to persistent uncertainty surrounding demand in China, the largest importer in the world. Copper futures per pound dropped 0.2% to $3.8407, a decrease of $0.02.


While the red metal followed the dollar lower on Tuesday, fears of sluggish demand in the immediate future limited gains.


China is experiencing its worst COVID outbreak to date, and the number of cases is expected to rise as the country relaxes its restrictions on the virus.


On the supply side, however, red metal production may tighten in the near future, particularly due to civil unrest in Peru, the world's second-largest copper producer.