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June 7th - As the conflict with Iran triggers global inflationary pressures, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points next week, becoming the first major central bank among the G7 to tighten monetary policy. Markets anticipate at least one more rate hike this year. In contrast, the Bank of Canada is likely to keep its rates unchanged, while the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are expected to remain on hold this month, observing the impact of the Iranian conflict. ECB officials aim to ensure that inflation in the Eurozone does not become deeply entrenched, but a rate hike would come at the cost of further dragging down an already weak economy. ECB President Christine Lagarde is likely to provide a clearer signal on the next steps at the press conference following the decision. Meanwhile, the ECB will also release its quarterly economic forecasts, assessing different scenarios of the energy shocks impact on the regional economy.On June 7th, Willie Walsh, Director General of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), stated that rising jet fuel prices are expected to lead to more airline bankruptcies and industry consolidation. He pointed out that a merger between United Airlines and American Airlines is unlikely due to regulatory hurdles. Walsh also stated that once the Middle East conflict subsides, airlines and hubs in the Gulf region will regain market share. Furthermore, despite disappointing progress in clean fuels, IATA remains committed to its 2050 net-zero emissions target.The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that its air defense forces intercepted 339 Ukrainian drones in multiple regions, including Moscow, within 13 hours.On June 7th, local time, the Russian Ministry of Defense stated on the 6th that Russian forces had seized control of the Shevchenko settlement in Kharkiv Oblast and struck 153 areas in Ukraine. These included production, storage, and launch sites for long-range drones; fuel, transportation, and port infrastructure; and temporary deployment points for Ukrainian armed forces and foreign mercenaries. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces stated on the 6th that Ukrainian forces attacked targets including Russian personnel assembly areas, drone control points, and artillery systems.Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba: Russian forces attacked two civilian search and rescue vessels in Ukrainian waters, causing casualties.

Gold Falls Below $1,750 on Fed Hawkishness, But Copper Rises

Haiden Holmes

Nov 29, 2022 12:00

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Gold prices dropped below a key support level on Tuesday after hawkish Fed comments raised worry about U.S. monetary policy. Copper prices stayed constant as investors awaited developments in China.


James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said Monday that the Fed has "a long way to go" in raising interest rates and may do so until 2024 to fight inflation. He also said rates must rise 1 percentage point to 5 to 5.25 percent.


Separately, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said the central bank will likely start decreasing interest rates in 2024 when inflationary pressures abate. He said rates must rise to combat inflation.


The dollar climbed 0.7% on Monday after their comments. This hurt commodities markets, particularly gold.


Spot gold stayed at $1,741.33 per ounce, while December futures traded at $1,740.00 per ounce, in backwardation. Both declined 0.6% on Monday.


Bullard and Williams' speeches clarified U.S. monetary policy but reduced expectations for a slower pace of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in the coming months, given that rates are expected to reach much higher peaks.


As U.S. interest rates have climbed, non-yielding assets like gold have lost value.


Gold saw modest safe-haven demand this week, despite historic civic unrest in China.


Copper fell as much as 2% to start the week before rebounding to trade higher.


China's protests may reduce the country's appetite for commodities, dimming the outlook for gold. Chinese people in many major cities protested the zero-COVID policy over the weekend.


Early Tuesday, copper futures were flat at $3.6018 per pound.


Other commentators say the protests in China may push the government to change its zero-COVID policy, which is causing China's economic slowdown this year. This would benefit commodity markets.


On the supply side, sources say Escondida employees won't strike in the future months, reducing the chance of a shortage.