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On April 27th, Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed A. El-Erian published an article stating that the price shock triggered by the Middle East wars has pushed market expectations towards an environment where interest rates remain at higher levels for an extended period, affecting almost all systemically important central banks, with the sole exception being the Bank of Japan, although the differences have recently narrowed, its policy framework remains self-contained. He pointed out that the current situation is not merely a simple price shock, but also accompanied by a negative demand shock from the "second-round effect," and in addition to these direct economic impacts, there is a potential risk of contagion to financial instability. He added, "All of this underscores the uncertainty of the outlook: central banks will face a series of difficult trade-offs, and I think these decisions likely (or should) boil down to a sobering question: Of all the mistakes we can make, which is the least irreversible? For central banks with a single mandate, such as the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, this question is relatively easier to answer; but for the Federal Reserve, which has a dual mandate, the situation is much more complex."According to Irans Tasnim News Agency, an Iranian parliamentary committee has passed a proposal to establish a crisis management ministry.On April 27th, the National Energy Administration held its quarterly press conference. According to the press conference, 24 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) have issued or formulated supporting policies for direct green power connections, and 99 direct green power connection projects nationwide have been approved, corresponding to a total installed capacity of 34.05 million kilowatts of new energy. Recently, based on the single-user direct green power connection policy, a multi-user direct green power connection policy has been formulated, allowing new energy sources to directly supply green electricity to multiple users through dedicated lines. This will promote the accelerated clean energy substitution in industrial parks and zero-carbon parks, and facilitate the wider consumption of new energy. The relevant policies will be released soon.On April 27, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad al-Kassym-Jomart Ghalibaf posted on social media on the 26th that the United States has exaggerated its bargaining chips in the energy game. Ghalibaf stated that the US has used numerous tactics, and its related strategies are in a predicament. The summer travel peak will exacerbate the pressure on the US, while Iran still holds unused "key trump cards."On April 27, the State Administration for Market Regulation selected seven provinces and municipalities—Beijing, Hebei, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong—to conduct a pilot program allowing registration authorities to apply to the Peoples Courts for compulsory liquidation. The pilot programs main tasks include three aspects: First, establishing a working mechanism. Market regulation departments in the pilot areas will proactively connect with the Peoples Courts, conduct in-depth research, and determine the timetable, roadmap, and safeguard measures for the pilot program in their respective regions. Second, improving the standardization of the liquidation system. This involves establishing a corporate screening mechanism to clarify the scope of application, streamlining the various stages and material requirements for administrative and judicial coordination, supporting the liquidation team in fulfilling its duties, and encouraging the establishment of dedicated windows for efficient handling of matters such as file inquiries and deregistration. Third, strengthening business data sharing. This involves promoting the establishment of data interfaces with the Peoples Courts to achieve information sharing, and improving the functions of the "one-stop" online service platform for deregistration, providing "fully online" services for compulsory liquidation and deregistration of bankrupt enterprises.

Gold Falls Below $1,750 on Fed Hawkishness, But Copper Rises

Haiden Holmes

Nov 29, 2022 12:00

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Gold prices dropped below a key support level on Tuesday after hawkish Fed comments raised worry about U.S. monetary policy. Copper prices stayed constant as investors awaited developments in China.


James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said Monday that the Fed has "a long way to go" in raising interest rates and may do so until 2024 to fight inflation. He also said rates must rise 1 percentage point to 5 to 5.25 percent.


Separately, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said the central bank will likely start decreasing interest rates in 2024 when inflationary pressures abate. He said rates must rise to combat inflation.


The dollar climbed 0.7% on Monday after their comments. This hurt commodities markets, particularly gold.


Spot gold stayed at $1,741.33 per ounce, while December futures traded at $1,740.00 per ounce, in backwardation. Both declined 0.6% on Monday.


Bullard and Williams' speeches clarified U.S. monetary policy but reduced expectations for a slower pace of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in the coming months, given that rates are expected to reach much higher peaks.


As U.S. interest rates have climbed, non-yielding assets like gold have lost value.


Gold saw modest safe-haven demand this week, despite historic civic unrest in China.


Copper fell as much as 2% to start the week before rebounding to trade higher.


China's protests may reduce the country's appetite for commodities, dimming the outlook for gold. Chinese people in many major cities protested the zero-COVID policy over the weekend.


Early Tuesday, copper futures were flat at $3.6018 per pound.


Other commentators say the protests in China may push the government to change its zero-COVID policy, which is causing China's economic slowdown this year. This would benefit commodity markets.


On the supply side, sources say Escondida employees won't strike in the future months, reducing the chance of a shortage.