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1. WTI crude oil futures trading volume was 1,335,333 lots, a decrease of 160,335 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 2,089,984 lots, a decrease of 16,134 lots from the previous trading day. 2. Brent crude oil futures trading volume was 251,967 lots, a decrease of 41,432 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 283,859 lots, a decrease of 2,651 lots from the previous trading day. 3. Natural gas futures trading volume was 353,207 lots, a decrease of 78,553 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 1,560,302 lots, a decrease of 8,673 lots from the previous trading day.On March 18th, Kei Fujimoto, an economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust, stated that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to maintain its policy rate at 0.75% this week. The BOJ will be monitoring how rising crude oil prices increase the cost of petrochemical products and other crude oil-based commodities, and how these cost pressures are transmitted to domestic prices. While rising crude oil prices will directly push up energy prices such as gasoline in the short term, this temporary fluctuation is unlikely to prompt the central bank to raise interest rates sooner than expected.1. Berenberg: The room for further rate cuts is quite limited; the Fed is expected to implement the final 25 basis point rate cut of this cycle at its June meeting. 2. Goldman Sachs: Expects 25 basis point rate cuts in September and December respectively. If the labor market weakens earlier and more severely than expected, rate cuts may be implemented sooner. 3. Deutsche Bank: Rates are expected to remain unchanged this week. Rising geopolitical uncertainty and inflation risks triggered by soaring oil prices are eroding the room for further rate cuts. 4. Credit Agricole: Rates are expected to remain unchanged until the end of the year. Some members may advocate ignoring short-term energy-driven inflation spikes, but most members tend to be more cautious. 5. Rabobank: Under Powells leadership, the Fed is likely to maintain a wait-and-see stance; if Warsh takes office, the Fed may be more aggressive, potentially pushing for rate cuts to combat economic downturn. 6. TS Lombard: Labor market concerns are resurfacing. If the energy shock subsides within weeks, coupled with the base effect of tariff inflation in the second half of the year and a rapid slowdown in rent inflation, two rate cuts are still possible this year. Xunze (03317.HK), the first company to list on the Hong Kong stock market specializing in token transactions, rebounded in the afternoon, narrowing its losses to 3.9%, after falling more than 9% earlier in the session. According to sources, a key reason for Alibaba Clouds recent price increase is a "surge in token usage."Japans Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry: The national average retail price of gasoline has risen to 190.80 yen per liter, a record high.

Global Economic Concerns And COVID in China Reduce Oil by 5%

Aria Thomas

Jan 05, 2023 11:22

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On Wednesday, the price of oil dropped by more than $4 a barrel, marking the greatest percentage decline in the first two trading days of any year in more than three decades, as investors concerned over fuel demand as the global economy slowed and COVID-19 cases grew in China.


Brent futures closed at $77.84 a barrel, a loss of $4.26, or 5.2%. The daily closing price of U.S. crude was $72.84 a barrel, a loss of $4.09, or 5.3%.


Brent has plummeted by about 9.4% this week, marking its steepest two-day decline at the beginning of the year since January 1991, according to data from Refinitiv Eikon.


Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho in New York, observed, "Crude oil is trading down due to fears about China's COVID-19 and the Federal Reserve imposing a worldwide recession, both demand-destroying events."


According to the World Health Organization, while no new coronavirus types have been detected in China, the government has underreported the number of deaths in its most recent, rapidly spreading outbreak.


The state of the global economy and rate increases by central banks also had a negative effect on petroleum prices.


The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) stated that manufacturing activity in the United States declined further in December, falling for a second consecutive month to 48.4 from 49.0 in November, the lowest level since May 2020.


Simultaneously, a study from the U.S. Department of Labor found that job openings declined less than anticipated, increasing concerns that the Federal Reserve may use the tight labor market as an excuse to keep higher interest rates for longer.


The Chinese government increased export quotas for refined oil products in the first batch of export quotas for 2023 in anticipation of weak domestic demand.


Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil producer, may decrease prices for its signature Arab Light crude grade to Asia in February, after putting them at a 10-month low for this month due to market concerns about an oversupply.


Reuters reported on Wednesday that OPEC oil production surged in December, despite a deal by the wider OPEC+ alliance to decrease production targets to aid the market.


According to research, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pumped 29 million barrels per day (bpd) in December, an increase of 120,000 bpd from November.


According to a revised Reuters poll, crude oil inventories likely grew by 1.2 million barrels last week, while distillate inventories likely declined.


According to market sources citing data from the American Petroleum Institute, crude oil inventories in the United States likely rose by 3.3 million barrels last week, while gasoline supplies rose by 1.2 million barrels and distillate stocks fell. [EIA/S]


Thursday morning, the Energy Information Administration will release its figures.