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On January 30th, analysts stated that gold and silver prices fell due to news that Kevin Warsh would be nominated by Trump as the next Federal Reserve Chairman. An analyst from a Malaysian bank stated in a foreign exchange research and strategy report, "Warsh has long been a critic of extremely loose monetary policy and has served as a Federal Reserve governor; therefore, the market may be pricing in the potential impact of his appointment on the future policy path."On January 30th, Nomura Securities analysts CW Chung and Eon Hwang stated in a report that SK Hynixs first-quarter earnings may be stronger due to a larger-than-expected increase in memory chip prices. The analysts raised their quarterly operating profit forecast for the South Korean chipmaker from 21 trillion won to 29 trillion won. The report stated that DRAM and NAND memory product prices are expected to increase by 56% and 40% quarter-on-quarter, respectively, faster than Nomuras previous forecasts of 23% and 20%. Nomura raised its target price for SK Hynix by 42% to 1.25 million won and maintained its buy rating. SK Hynix shares recently rose 4.5% to 900,000 won.January 30th - According to Zhejiang Provincial Airport Group, during the Spring Festival travel rush, airports across the province are expected to handle 10.61 million passengers, averaging 265,000 passengers per day, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, which is 2.2 percentage points higher than the national average and is expected to set a new historical record.The bid-to-cover ratio for Japans 2-year government bond auction was 3.88, higher than the 3.26 for the previous issuance in December.Market Warnings: Risks in the Gold Market 1. Carson Group: Gold prices have stretched to near-extreme levels, and some moderate profit-taking is not surprising. 2. Spartan Securities: A pullback in gold and silver futures may indicate that prices have reached recent highs, making this reversal significant. 3. Vantage Point: Recent gold price movements have become rapid, emotional, and non-linear, a warning sign that the trend is overextended at a tactical level. 4. Market analyst Jeremy Boulton: Gold is what really needs to be watched closely; its price surges in an extremely volatile manner, significantly increasing the risk of a reversal. The current gold price rally is extremely distorted. Any extreme movement warrants caution. 5. Galaxy Overseas: Gold and other precious metals appear to be in a self-reinforcing feedback loop, with their price movements themselves becoming news drivers of price changes. This could affect investors perception of fiat currency-related risks and lead to a widening of the bond risk premium at the long end of the yield curve. Investment banks remain bullish on gold: 1. Goldman Sachs: The sharp two-way fluctuations in silver prices may persist, while emphasizing that the year-end gold price target of $5400 still faces significant upside risks. 2. RBC Capital Markets: Golds upward momentum is far from peaking, with prices potentially reaching $7100/oz by year-end (previously predicted to reach around $5200 in the fourth quarter). 3. Deutsche Bank: Gold reaching $6000 is achievable given the weakening dollar this year. Based on the outperformance of the past two years, gold prices could even reach $6900. 4. OCBC Bank: Raised its year-end 2026 gold price target from $4800 to $5600. The rise in gold prices reflects recent developments and their continued exceeding expectations, rather than a reassessment of the underlying logic. 5. Bank of America: While history doesnt always predict the future, the average gold price increase in the past four bull markets was approximately 300% over 43 months, suggesting gold will reach $6,000 per ounce by the spring of 2026. 6. UBS: Maintains a bullish stance on gold and has raised its price forecasts for March, June, and September of this year to $6,200 (previously $5,000), expecting a modest pullback to $5,900 by the end of 2026. 7. Bank of Montreal: Assuming central banks purchase a total of 8 million ounces of gold per quarter, while ETFs see inflows of approximately 4-5 million ounces per quarter, and with continued weakening of real yields and the US dollar, this will push gold to $6,350 in Q4 of this year and $8,650 in Q4 of next year.

GBP/USD maintains a defensive posture above 1.2400, with focus on US inflation, BoE Governor Bailey, and Fed minutes

Alina Haynes

Apr 12, 2023 13:47

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GBP/USD fluctuates between 1.2415 and 1.2420 in the early hours of Wednesday's crucial session as bulls struggle to maintain control. This reflects a cautious outlook advance of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March and the minutes from the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting. The speech of Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey is also crucial to monitor.

 

The most recent Bloomberg headlines indicate, however, that the British labor market is no longer constrained. "For the first time in two years, the number of people available for work in the United Kingdom increased, easing one of the tightest labor markets in more than a decade," reported the news.

 

In a similar vein, Reuters reported optimistic UK housing prices, allowing GBP/USD buyers to remain optimistic prior to high-profile data events. Reuters reported on Wednesday that British housing sales recovered to within a whisker of pre-crisis levels in March, signifying a rebound from September, when the failed economic plan of former prime minister Liz Truss caused market turmoil.

 

Recently, Neel Kashkari, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, stated, "The inflation target of 2% should not be changed." However, other Fed policymakers have recently signaled divergent concerns, which has depressed the Cable investors. President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Patrick Harker, stated that the Federal Reserve will continue to scrutinize available data to determine if additional action is required. John Williams, president of the New York Fed, had previously stated that interest rates will need to be lowered if inflation declines. In addition, the president of the Chicago Fed, Austan Goolsbee, stated on Tuesday that they should be cautious about increasing interest rates in light of recent developments in the banking sector.

 

In its January report, the IMF lowered its forecast for global real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for 2023 from 2.9% to 2.8%. However, the international lender defends the efforts of the main central banks to combat inflation and gives GBP/USD pair traders no substantial indications.

 

After Wall Street's muddled close, S&P 500 Futures remain directionless in this environment, while US Treasury bond yields rise and encourage US Dollar sellers.

 

To thwart GBP/USD investors, the FOMC Minutes must defend the rate hike path. The meeting between US President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in Northern Ireland is also notable. (NI).