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Moodys upgraded SK Hynixs rating to Baa1 with a stable outlook.December 12th - According to three sources, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is likely to maintain its commitment to continue raising interest rates next week, but will emphasize that the pace of further rate hikes will depend on the economys response to each increase. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has essentially announced a December rate hike ahead of schedule, and the market has almost fully priced in the possibility of raising the rate from 0.5% to 0.75% in December. Market focus has shifted to the extent to which the BOJ can raise rates to a neutral level. Sources say that while the central bank may internally update its estimate of the policy rates distance from what is considered neutral, it will not use this estimate as the primary communication tool for future rate hike paths due to the difficulty in making precise predictions. Instead, the sources indicate that the BOJ will explain that future rate hike decisions will be based on considerations of how past rate hikes have affected bank lending, corporate financing conditions, and other economic activity. One source stated, "Japans real interest rates are very low, which allows the BOJ to continue raising rates in several phases," and two other sources shared the same view.On December 12th, Ant Group officially open-sourced the LLaDA 2.0 series. LLaDA 2.0 includes two versions based on the MoE architecture: 16B (mini) and 100B (flash). For the first time, we have expanded the parameter scale of the Diffusion model to the 100B level. This release not only breaks the conventional wisdom that diffusion models are difficult to scale, but also demonstrates superior performance compared to peer autoregressive (AR) models in code, mathematical, and agent tasks.Market news: In the past 24 hours, Russian troops destroyed 12 Ukrainian drone control stations in a special military operations zone.Sources indicate that the Bank of Japan will not release an updated estimate of its neutral interest rate, nor will it use it as a primary tool for communicating the timing of rate hikes. The Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its commitment to continue raising interest rates next week, but the pace of these hikes will depend on the economys response to each increase.

Forecast for the price of gold: XAU/USD recovery aims toward $1,800 as US inflation prospects test Fed hawks

Daniel Rogers

Dec 06, 2022 14:57

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The price of gold (XAU/USD) is still rising, hovering around $1,778 as the US dollar battles to maintain its week-start gain on early Tuesday. In addition to the movements of the dollar, technical analysis supports bullion buyers in maintaining control even as markets contract prior to the Federal Reserve's policymakers going dark.

 

On Monday, the US ISM Services PMI increased to 56.5 in November from 53.1 in the market expectation and 54.4 in the prior readings, while Factory Orders likewise showed 1.0% growth vs 0.7% predicted and 0.3% in the prior readings. Additionally, the S&P Global Composite PMI increased to 46.4 from 46.3 initial estimates, while the corresponding figure for services increased to 46.2 from 46.1 flash expectations.

 

On Friday, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) surprised markets by increasing to 263K instead of the 200K predicted and the 284K previously reported, although the unemployment rate for November was in line with market expectations and previous readings at 3.7%. Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Federal Reserve, commented after the positive report that "we are probably going to have a slightly higher peak to Fed policy rate even as we moderate pace of rate hikes."

 

However, it should be noted that a surprise decline in US inflation expectations from a one-month high, as measured by the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates, according to data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED), calls into question the recent hawkish bias regarding the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) next move. The most recent estimates of inflation forecasts for the next five and ten years show a decline from the one-month peak to 2.46% and 2.39%, respectively.

 

In other places, the market's optimism appeared to have been aided by expectations that China will soon relax its rigorous Zero-COVID policy. According to Reuters, an anonymous source, China is expected to announce a further reduction of some of the world's strictest COVID regulations as early as Wednesday.

 

A three-day slump is broken by the S&P 500 Futures, which record intraday gains of 0.20 percent around 4,011. However, the US 10-year Treasury note yields have fallen three basis points (bps) to 3.56% as of press time, following a rally from an 11-week low established last Friday.

 

Moving on, Gold may continue to recover despite what is likely to be a slow day, although concerns about China and the Fed seem crucial for short-term trends.


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