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August 13th - As of 2:30 PM closing, the main Shanghai gold futures contract rose 0.36% to 959 yuan/gram, the main Shanghai silver futures contract rose 0.63% to 16,024 yuan/kilogram, and the main SC crude oil futures contract rose 0.63% to 556 yuan/barrel.August 13th - According to the Globe and Mail, the Canadian government is considering a proposed auto tariff package, hoping to accept some U.S. auto tariffs in exchange for lower U.S. tariffs on vehicles compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The package includes maintaining the exemption policy, meaning the value of U.S.-made parts in Canadian-exported cars will not be included in the tariff calculation. Sources indicate that U.S. and Canadian negotiators have discussed the proposal. Preliminary details suggest that the auto tariffs imposed by Trump under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 could be further reduced from the current 25% tariff on all USMCA-compliant Canadian auto exports. Furthermore, the value of U.S. parts in Canadian-made cars will remain excluded from the tariff calculation. Approximately 50% of the parts in a Canadian-made car come from the U.S., and businesses believe that a 10% to 15% tariff level would be acceptable if U.S. components were excluded. The goal is to reach an agreement by August 19th. Canadian officials believe that a deferral of the next round of tariffs is more likely by August 19th than a comprehensive resolution to the Section 232 tariff issue.On August 13th, the U.S. Treasury Department reported on Wednesday that the U.S. budget deficit has surged to its highest monthly level in more than five years, driven by soaring Medicare costs and continued pressure from federal debt interest payments. In addition to the significant single-month increase, the cumulative deficit for the first 10 months of fiscal year 2026 has approached $1.8 trillion, exceeding the figure for the same period in fiscal year 2025. The total deficit in July reached $432.3 billion, an increase of approximately 48% compared to the same period last year, marking the largest single-month deficit since March 2021 and setting a new July record. Medicare spending reached $174 billion that month, up from $103 billion in June, bringing the total for the year to $955 billion. This was the largest single expenditure in July, far exceeding Social Security spending of $141 billion and net interest payments on national debt of $104 billion. Furthermore, tariff rebates also impacted the budget by $33 billion. Additionally, U.S. fiscal revenue was negatively affected by a calendar factor of $99 billion, as the first day of the month was a non-working day. For years, Trump has urged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to ease debt costs. Since his nominee, Warsh, took over as chairman in May, he has ceased criticizing the Fed.On August 13th, Reuters, citing sources, reported that Alphabet, the parent company of Google (GOOG.O), is undergoing a major leadership reshuffle at Google DeepMind, with some teams moving from DeepMind to the Google corporate system, further weakening DeepMinds autonomy. Sources said that Google co-founder Sergey Brin has been urging core AI employees in recent months to "fully commit" to the Gemini model and push for AI research in areas such as "recursive self-improvement." Following this reshuffle, DeepMind head Demis Hassabis will become chairman, with his deputy Kolai Kavukuoğlu taking over leadership responsibilities. Google stated that Kavukuoğlu will have final say on major decisions at DeepMind. Sources said that Google has postponed the release of the new flagship Gemini model by two months because internal testing showed it still lags behind competitors in areas such as programming. Analysts believe that Alphabets restructuring aims to accelerate AI commercialization and regain a competitive edge in model development, but some employees worry that DeepMinds long-term research autonomy may further decline.On August 13, according to a statement from the Iraqi Prime Ministers Media Office, Iraqi Prime Minister Mullah Zaidi met with visiting U.S. Central Command Commander General Robert Cooper on August 12. During the meeting, Zaidi reiterated Iraqs commitment to the established timetable, namely, September 30th is the final date for the international coalition forces to end their military mission in Iraq and complete their withdrawal. Zaidi stated that October 1st will be a new day in Iraqi history, when Iraq will completely rid itself of all foreign military presence, realize its territorial sovereignty, continuously enhance its national security and military capabilities, and safeguard its own security and stability.

Embrace the uncertainty’ from less central bank guidance – former Fed officials

Jimmy Khan

Jul 29, 2022 14:54

Even as markets try to predict the U.S. central bank's upcoming policy decisions, investors and policymakers should embrace the Federal Reserve's shift to providing fewer firm signals on forward guidance, according to two former Fed officials.

Former Atlanta Federal Reserve president Dennis Lockhart said on Thursday at the Reuters Global Markets Forum (GMF) that the guidance we've previously seen "creates an expectation that's unjustified."

The Fed is navigating and figuring things out as they go along, so I think it's better to accept the uncertainty, he said.

Former Fed Board of Governors member Jeremy Stein told GMF that the central bank's flexibility is limited by too detailed guidance at a time when the course of inflation and economic growth is still unknown.

"The key question is how much higher we can raise interest rates in a year. Actually, we don't know. Giving the market a false sense of security is ineffective, according to Stein, a professor at Harvard University at the moment.

Jerome Powell, the chair of the Fed, avoided indicating the magnitude of upcoming rate hikes after the central bank boosted interest rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday. Similar emphasis has been placed on a meeting-by-meeting "data-driven" approach by other central banks.

According to Stein, markets frequently run the risk of ignoring the more crucial issue of how high rates will ultimately rise and how they will affect financial conditions.

A 100-basis-point rate hike is possible, according to Lockhart, even though the chance is slim at the Fed's September meeting. He and Stein had doubts about how rapidly inflation would decline.

Stein said that during the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, both unemployment and price increases spiked, and a repeat of this situation may put the Fed's resolve to get inflation back to its target of 2 percent to the test.