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Despite weakening China inflation, WTI crude oil prices surpass $80 per barrel. API inventories are scrutinized

Daniel Rogers

Apr 11, 2023 14:34

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WTI crude oil reaches a new intraday high near $80.40, buoyed by marginally bullish market sentiment and a weakening US Dollar ahead of Tuesday's European session. Even so, the price of black gold remains within a one-week trading range of approximately $2.0 upon the resumption of full markets following the weekend break.

 

Consequently, the US Dollar Index (DXY) breaks a four-day uptrend by falling to 102.35 at press time, down 0.20 percent intraday. In doing so, the greenback bears the weight of remarks made by the president of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of New York and the vice chairman of the Fed's rate-setting committee, John Williams, who cites rising chances of benign inflation. Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of global fixed income at BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, said late Monday, according to Reuters, "The Federal Reserve may not need to raise interest rates further to fight inflation, as the aftermath of last month's turmoil in the banking sector and a series of recent labor data point to a slowing US economy."

 

On a separate page, the conclusion of China's military exercises near Taiwan is combined with the Australian-Chinese trade agreement and expectations for increased investment in Japan to illustrate the cautious optimism in the markets. Positive headlines from the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, who stated on Monday that the global economy is expected to grow less than 3% in 2023, with India and China expected to account for half of the global growth this year, also favored the optimists.

 

In spite of this, CME's FedWatch Tool forecasts that the US Central Bank will raise rates by 0.25 percentage points in May, which challenges market sentiment and WTI crude oil purchasers. Also weighing on risk appetite and energy benchmark prices could be China's disappointing inflation data and a cautious tone ahead of high-profile US data/events.

 

Above all, the OPEC+ supply limits and rising expectations of increased energy demand from the world's largest energy consumer, China, support the upward momentum of WTI crude oil.

 

Moving forward, the weekly report of Oil inventories from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which was -4,346,000 barrels the week prior, could influence WTI prices. For unambiguous direction, the IMF's spring summit and US inflation, as well as the Fed Minutes, will receive the most attention.

 


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