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Dovish 1. Bank of Japan member Asahi Noguchi: Given the uncertain economic outlook, the Bank of Japan should refrain from adjusting interest rates and should closely monitor economic developments. 2. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida: We must pay attention to downside risks facing Japans economy and prices, and the Bank of Japan must currently support the economy through accommodative monetary policy. Neutral 1. Bank of Japan member Kazuyuki Masuda: We do not strongly disagree with the view that Japans overall inflation has not yet reached 2%; considering various economic risks, the Bank of Japan should not rush to raise interest rates. 2. Bank of Japan member Junko Koeda: Given the current high level of uncertainty, it is not appropriate to discuss the specific timing of the next rate hike. We need to closely monitor the economy, inflation, and financial markets before making a decision. 3. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: If the economy and prices develop as expected, we will not change our stance on raising interest rates. We will carefully examine whether the economy and prices meet our forecasts without preconceived views. 4. Bank of Japan member Junko Nakagawa: If the outlook for economic activity and prices is realized, the Bank of Japan will continue to raise the policy rate. We will make appropriate monetary policy decisions through continuous and prudent data assessment. 5. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Yoshizo Himino: If the economy and prices perform as expected, the Bank of Japan is expected to gradually raise interest rates. As for the timing of rate hikes, we can only say that we hope to ensure that they are not raised too early or too late. Hawkish 1. Bank of Japan board member Hajime Takada: The Bank of Japan has only paused its rate hike cycle for now and should continue to adjust and shift after a period of observation. The Bank of Japan needs to return to a rate hike cycle in a flexible manner. 2. Bank of Japan board member Naoki Tamura: We are likely to achieve our inflation target earlier than expected. Even if uncertainty about US tariffs persists, the Bank of Japan may still need to raise interest rates decisively to address inflation risks.Gold prices fell for a third consecutive day on September 19th as traders grew more cautious about the prospect of Federal Reserve rate cuts and a stronger dollar curbed the precious metals recent gains. Gold prices are now about $70 below Wednesdays all-time high, which was driven to a record high by the Feds 25 basis point rate cut. Gold prices subsequently retreated after Fed Chairman Powells comments on the path of monetary policy were more hawkish than expected, stating that officials would take a "meeting-by-meeting" approach to further easing. Looking ahead, attacks on the Feds independence from the US government could further fuel golds gains. Governor Lisa Cook is embroiled in a legal dispute with President Trump, who sought to fire her over mortgage fraud allegations. Government economic advisor Stephen Milan, who was quickly appointed to fill a temporary vacancy at the Fed, was the only member of the board who dissented from the 25 basis point rate cut at Wednesdays meeting, favoring a 50 basis point cut instead.On September 19th, as market expectations for a Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate hike grew, prices for two-year government bonds, sensitive to monetary policy expectations, fell, pushing the yield up 0.5 basis points to 0.885%, the highest level since 2008. The BoJ will announce its interest rate decision later today, with the market generally expecting it to remain unchanged. Investors are closely watching for any clues regarding a September or December rate hike. Uncertainty over tariff policy and the political risks posed by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishibas announced resignation plan complicate the BoJs decision-making environment. However, according to sources familiar with the matter, BoJ officials believe that despite political uncertainty, another benchmark rate hike is still possible this year given that economic development is in line with expectations. According to an institutional survey, most BoJ observers expect a rate hike before January, while the proportion favoring a hike next month has slightly decreased following Ishibas resignation. Overnight index swaps indicate that the market is pricing in a roughly 65% probability of a BoJ rate hike before the end of the year.The yield on 40-year Japanese government bonds fell 1.5 basis points to 3.420%.On September 19th, Jinfang Pharmaceutical-B (2595.HK) officially listed on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The stock opened sharply higher in early trading at HK$44, a 115.79% surge from its IPO price of HK$20.4. Based on a 200-share board lot, excluding commissions, the book profit per board lot reached HK$4,722. This strong IPO performance was foreshadowed. In the previous trading days grey market, Jinfang Pharmaceutical-B closed up 110.10% at HK$42.84, with a book profit of HK$4,490 per board lot.

Bitcoin Slices Through Key Technical Price Level, Where is the Bottom?

Jimmy Khan

Jun 14, 2022 11:59

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Bitcoin prices have dropped below a critical support level that has previously functioned as the bottom of prior bear markets. In prior market cycles, the 200-week moving average has been a significant level of support for long-term Bitcoin price fluctuations.


During the Tuesday morning Asian trading session, BTC prices fell through this critical barrier, falling to slightly over $21,000. According to Tradingview, the 200-week moving average was around the $22,000 price level, but it has failed to hold, with prices now lingering at $21,883.


Josh Rager, a trader and analyst, saw the change and tweeted "help us all" on June 14.


"Structural macro flows are so against us, it likely only matters when the risk-tides change," Chris Burniske, a partner at Placeholder VC, said of the ramifications of breaking through such a strong level of support: "Could be entering pretty new bear territory for crypto shortly here." The battle on the marketplace is far greater than we are."

Unprecedented Fear

Bitcoin is presently down 69 percent from its all-time high in November, and prior bear markets have had declines of more than 80%, so there might be more agony ahead. If history repeats itself with this crypto winter, BTC might fall to about $13,000.


This cycle looks to be unique in comparison to prior ones. With soaring inflation and a cost-of-living crisis, the whole world is in economic distress. Few people have the financial means to invest in anything, and fear and skepticism are at all-time highs.


"Realize how little this crypto dump has to do with Celsius and the stETH issue and everything to do with the overall panic in risk assets (equities and crypto alike) and broken charts," analyst Alex Krüger said, confirming the idea that there was widespread concern.


Because the patterns and signs have not been followed to this time, a lot of conventional technical analysis (TA) has been made ineffective.


But it's not only bitcoin that's been pounded; equities in general have been hammered as well.

Where Does Bitcoin's Bottom Lie?

With TA in a FUBAR condition, predicting the moves of crypto markets over the next several months has become difficult. Nonetheless, it's reasonable to assume that the bears aren't done yet.


For the first time since January 2021, the overall market capitalization has dropped 70% to below $1 trillion, making the previous peak of $830 billion in January 2018 appear not so far away.