EUR/USD
1.16422
-0.146%
Gold
4467.44
-0.234%
Oil
58.112
-0.237%
USD/JPY
157.576
0.457%
GBP/USD
1.34156
-0.183%
GBP/JPY
211.402
0.287%
Real-time News
The Governor of the Bank of Thailand stated that regulations on gold imports have been tightened over the past three months.On January 9th, the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) issued a report stating that the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 59.1% in December. Due to the impending expiration of the NEV purchase tax exemption policy, NEVs exhibited a strong growth trend, exceeding that of gasoline vehicles by 32.6 percentage points. The nearly 60% NEV penetration rate signifies that the market has entered a new "new energy-dominated" stage, requiring timely policy adjustments to promote harmonious and high-quality development of the industry. From January to December 2025, Chinas domestic gasoline passenger vehicle exports reached 2.87 million, a 7% decrease, while domestic NEV exports reached 2.04 million, a 139% increase, accounting for 49.5% of domestic exports. With the growth of CKD (Completely Knocked Down) exports, Chinas passenger vehicle exports have shifted from simply selling cars to exporting the entire industry chain, and from rapid quantitative growth to a leap in quality.China Passenger Car Association: Tesla exported 3,328 vehicles to China in December.On January 9th, the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) issued a report stating that the policy incentives for commercial vehicle replacement will remain unchanged in 2026, while passenger vehicle scrapping and replacement will decrease by 20% based on the 2025 structure, with a maximum decrease of 30% based on the trade-in program. The growth effect of commercial vehicles is expected to be better than that of passenger vehicles in 2026. The passenger vehicle market in 2026 is expected to follow a "U-shaped" trend of "high-medium-low-high," with overall sales remaining flat compared to domestic retail sales in 2025. Exports will maintain a medium-to-high growth rate of over 10%, but domestic inventory pressure remains significant; therefore, overall passenger vehicle wholesale growth is projected to reach 1%.Market Views: 1. Interactive Brokers: Losing the tariff tool will have multiple ripple effects, negatively impacting ambitions to bring industries back to the US, harming fiscal conditions, and causing interest rates to rise, but this will benefit corporate profits. 2. Crossbridge Capital Group: If tariffs are overturned as expected, the dollar may weaken immediately, while the US Treasury yield curve may continue to steepen due to lower short-term interest rates. 3. Bank of New York Mellon: If tariffs are removed, the stock market may rise. Specifically, the retail and consumer goods sectors may benefit, and the electronics sector may also perform well. 4. JPMorgan Chase: Removing tariffs may reignite fiscal concerns, bringing the risk of rising long-term yields and a steeper yield curve, but the impact will be limited because the Trump administration will seek alternative legislation to reinstate tariffs. 5. World Gold Council: If Trumps tariffs are removed, it will exacerbate gold price volatility and may trigger a short-term gold price correction; in the long term, gold is expected to remain supported by central bank demand, diversification demand, and safe-haven demand. 6. Morgan Stanley: Courts have considerable discretion, which could lead to various outcomes. For example, courts could narrow the scope of existing tariffs but not force their complete elimination or restrict future tariffs. 7. Wells Fargo: If the Supreme Court rules against the tariff policy, S&P 500 companies EBITDA in 2026 will grow by 2.4% from last years level, and investors are likely to push up stock prices due to anticipated profit increases. 8. Nomura Securities: If the tariff measures are ruled illegal, Trump can still impose tariffs through five other legal avenues. It is certain that by the end of 2026, the US will have a tariff system almost identical to the existing one. 9. KEY Advisors Wealth Management: If the Supreme Court rules against the tariffs and requires the government to refund all tariffs, it will have a significant adverse impact on the market. This is equivalent to withdrawing liquidity from the entire system. Prediction Platform Data: 1. As of press time, the prediction platform Polymarket shows a 25% probability that the Supreme Court will support Trumps tariff policy and a 26% probability that the Supreme Court will force Trump to refund tariffs. 2. As of press time, the prediction platform Kalshi shows that the probability of the Supreme Court ordering the Trump administration to refund tariffs by January 2026 is 0%, the probability of refunding them by July 2026 is 47%, and the probability of refunding them by 2027 is 54%.
