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On September 12th, Christodoulos Patsalides, a member of the European Central Banks governing council and the Governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus, stated on Friday that the ECB does not need to adjust its benchmark interest rate in the near future, but future adjustments could be in both directions. He stated that as long as inflation develops as expected, "the current interest rate is appropriate." Patsalides stated that it is fair to say that inflation risks are currently balanced, and in this context, "the next move in interest rates could be upwards or downwards." He emphasized that all options are on the table and that a rate hike would not be ruled out if necessary. The forecast for the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for 2026 is "only a short-term deviation from the 2% target," with the ECB projecting it to return to 1.9% by 2027. "Therefore, there is no reason to be overly concerned about a prolonged period of below-target inflation." As for the downward revision of the 2027 inflation forecast to 1.9% from 2% in June, Patsalides stated that the two forecasts are "almost identical," primarily due to technical assumptions such as exchange rate fluctuations, rather than fundamental changes.Market news: The EU accepted Microsofts commitment to resolve the Teams antitrust case, and Microsoft promised to separate Teams from the Office suite.A Kyodo News opinion poll in Japan showed that Sanae Takaichi leads the Liberal Democratic Party with 28% support, while Junichiro Koizumi has 22.5%.A Kyodo News poll showed that Japans cabinet approval rating rose 1.8 percentage points to 34.5%.ECB board member Escriva: GDP growth is slow and there are competitiveness problems.

AUD / JPY Falls Below 91.50 Despite RBA Rate Increase Prospects

Alina Haynes

Mar 07, 2023 13:41

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The AUD / JPY pair has moved its auction below 91.50 during the early Asian session. The risk barometer is confronting offers while attempting a recovery, and it is anticipated that its decline will continue to around 91.30. Despite increasing likelihood of a hawkish monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of Australia, the cross shows no signs of recovery (RBA).

 

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January showed a significant deceleration, but not enough for the RBA to suspend its policy tightening.

 

GDP increased by 0.5% in the fourth quarter, which was less than the consensus estimate of 0.8% and the previous release of 0.7%.

 

Analysts at SocGen believe that "recent signals in the macroeconomic data, such as the decline in inflation, the revival in the unemployment rate, relatively tepid wage growth, and the confirmation of a decline in consumption, all support a 25 basis point increase in March." Despite the markets' more pessimistic view of US Fed policy, they sustain our baseline scenario of a terminal policy rate of 3.85%.

 

, The annualized GDP data indicate that the Japanese economy has expanded by 0.8%, which is 0.8% more than the previous expansion of 0.6%. While it is expected that the quarterly statistics will show a steady growth of0.2%, it is anticipated that the yearly growth rate will be 0.4%.


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