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How Will You Know Crypto Winter is Ending? 3 Signs to Watch

Skylar Shaw

Sep 22, 2022 14:28


Investors often use the stock market as a cryptocurrency market comparison. Therefore, it would make sense to enter the stock market bear market right now in an effort to comprehend the present crypto winter we're in.

Although there is a lot of selling pressure in both sectors, there isn't a perfect link between cryptocurrencies and stocks. The bitcoin industry is, in fact, still in its infancy, and there isn't enough information to draw reliable comparisons.

But the last crypto winter began in late 2017 and lasted till 2020. Similar to it, the stock market underperformed at that time. Therefore, even if these two markets seem to be strongly connected (and this connection has been greater this year than in the past), it's possible that the fact that we're experiencing pain in all markets is just a coincidence.

Despite this, the majority of investors are curious as to when the crypto decline could finish. And the hunt for triggers that might indicate an end to this suffering is underway in order to determine when that could occur. Here are three such indications that investors may want to watch out for as evidence that the crypto winter may be melting.

Historical Example

Understanding prior patterns shown by historical data is often necessary to comprehend the gyrations of any market. For instance, investors who want to comprehend the present weak market circumstances primarily rely on historical data. Such investors may legitimately anticipate that a few defensive companies that have thrived during prior downturns would likely also thrive this time around.

For stock investors, it is fantastic. It is commonly known that there have been 27 bear markets since 1928. Every one has lasted, on average, 9.6 months. That would also be a logical assumption for the present bear market.

However, there are problems in estimating the possible duration of this current crypto winter based just on past data. The problem is rather straightforward: there is a dearth of historical cryptocurrency data. As a result, it is challenging to make any kind of claims about the length or severity of current market collapse.

According to a recent Forbes piece, this crypto winter may endure until 2026. However, that forecast is predicated on the idea that the length of prior crypto winters from 2012 to 2019 is indicative of the present circumstance. Despite the little data, this is what we can work with.

Observe tech stocks

There is a lot of data to depend on when it comes to the stock market, despite the fact that there is a relative paucity of data in the crypto industry. Therefore, certain similarities may be made that are worthwhile taking into consideration for investors who think the relatively strong correlation we've observed between tech equities and cryptos will persist.

This connection was emphasized in the same Forbes article. Experts think that some indicators, such as the strong association between Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and the IT industry, may help predict when this crypto winter will end. The basic premise of the thesis is that cryptocurrencies may follow when tech equities seem to be turning a corner.

Here is the issue. It is difficult to anticipate with absolute certainty whether tech stocks are "turning the corner" or bottoming. Some analysts predict that if current tech bubble bursts, it might be worse than the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, but the majority of market observers think the market has bottomed.

The whole technology industry lost about 80% of its value during that tech meltdown. In addition, the bottom of this bear market didn't come for years. This crypto winter could still have a long way to go if the performance of the heavily tech-weighted Nasdaq index is any indication. This is due to the fact that during the present bear market, the Nasdaq is only down around 27%.

Adhere to the Federal Reserve

It's important to consider the factors that contribute to the strong link between tech equities and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Many analysts think that the relationship between the two may be mediated by interest rates.

Indeed, higher interest rates were associated with earlier stock market catastrophes, which many think to have been the reason. That's because the tide that raised all boats came from the cheap liquidity that supported risk assets in the years before the dot-com implosion and the Great Recession. Investors turned to more protective assets and alternatives, like bonds, when capital became more costly, as it is now.

As a result, many people have doubts about the cryptocurrency market's potential to recover quickly. Following the inflation numbers from August, it is obvious that the Federal Reserve will maintain its aggressive policy. To combat inflation, the Federal Reserve today announced an additional rate increase of 75 basis points (0.75%). As a result, money is more costly, and the availability of liquidity for higher-risk growth assets may decrease.

If the Fed makes a change, maybe both tech stocks and cryptocurrencies will bottom out. But until then, it's anticipated that the crypto winter will likely last a while.